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Yearly Excess Death Rate Analysis

United Kingdom

Data Sources: Office for National Statistics (ONS), NHS vaccination statistics.

November 2023

Data:

The data is based upon weekly deaths data from the UK ONS spanning from 2010 to 2023.

Country: UK

Source for Weekly Deaths (ONS): Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales.

Source for Vaccination data: NHS - COVID-19 vaccinations archive.

Source for Population Estimates (UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) - NOMIS): NOMIS query: National Population projections by single year of age.

Comment:

The dashboard below summarises the analysis of excess mortality for different age groups in the United Kingdom. It allows individuals, researchers and institutions to visualise the data, and make their own conclusions based upon what they view. Users can browse the different age groups. Each interactive chart attempts to capture different aspects of the observed excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic years. All the data is downloadable and the original data sources, as well as methodologies to analyse the data, are provided. We will endeavour to update our servers as new data becomes available.

Complementary Analysis

Go to Quarterly Analysis.

Go to Weekly Analysis.

Excess Mortality

We show the analysis of excess mortality using the different methodologies described in our methodology papers.These papers illustrate the pitfalls and advantages of using the different calculation methods for excess mortality.

In summary, using method 1, excess deaths for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 are computed by subtracting the N-year pre-pandemic average deaths (typically 3 to 5 years) from actual deaths in the Covid-19 pandemic years. This method is the one most widely used for estimating excess deaths, including by countries' statistical offices. However, this method has obvious pitfalls as the measurement of excess deaths is highly sensitive to the baseline for estimating "normal" deaths. By using a prior average of the number of deaths as a baseline, biases are easily introduced due to increasing or decreasing population over time. When the population is increasing, excess deaths are over-estimated while when populations are decreasing they tend to be under-estimated.

Method 2 solves some of these problems by computing changes in death rates relative to a given baseline and, as shown in our methodology papers, are much more reliable for estimating excess mortality.

Yearly Excess Deaths using methods 1, 2A and 2C

The chart below shows the actual deaths (or death rate) versus the projected estimates when using the different methodologies described in our methodology papers.

The user can select the calculation method, age group and country. 2023 deaths or deaths rates are annualised estimates using a linear model.

The chart below shows the excess mortality for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 (either excess deaths or excess death rates) for a given age group.

The plot allows the user to select the desired methodology, country and age group. 2023 deaths or deaths rates are annualised estimates using a linear model.

Excess Mortality. Age-group comparison.

The following chart shows the analysis of excess mortality for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, for different age groups. The user can specify the method for estimating excess mortality.

Yearly excess mortality, from 2020 to 2023, for different age groups.

Comparison of excess mortality methods

The following chart allows the user to compare the different methods for estimating excess mortality for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The user can specify the Age Group.

Yearly excess mortality, method comparison.

Complementary Analysis

Go to Quarterly Analysis.

Go to Weekly Analysis.